Kamala Harris’s money advantage isn’t paying off

Harris has reportedly raised $1 billion in roughly two-and-a-half months, a pace that surpasses any other presidential candidate in modern history.

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But despite this unprecedented figure, Trump is narrowly leading Harris in the seven battleground states by 0.3%, according to a RealClearPolitics poll average, prompting some consternation among Democrats.

“There’s no reason anyone should raise a billion dollars and be running against a guy like that and be neck and neck,” said a Democrat close to the Harris campaign who is concerned that Harris isn’t breaking through, especially with men.

With less than a month before Election Day, Harris has used her fundraising windfall to far outspend Trump on traditional advertising, such as battleground state TV commercials. But despite all that, polling indicates she’s underperforming with young, black, and Latino voters — three key voting blocs to the Democratic coalition.

In the three “blue wall” states that Harris is banking on winning to ensure victory, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump has narrowed and, in some cases, overtaken the vice president’s lead in the polls.

“I think the biggest concern right now is how to close strong,” one Democratic aide told the Washington Examiner. “There was a lot of momentum post-debate, but the energy/polling has let up just a bit.”

Democrats are warning the Harris campaign can’t get complacent and be aggressive with campaigning, ground game, and outreach. There’s frustration that Trump, a twice-impeached and four-time indicted former president, could be on the verge of a comeback victory.

“Having more money isn’t everything. Everyone’s on edge,” the aide also added.

The Harris campaign and affiliated Democratic allies have spent $820.4 million on paid media since President Joe Biden suspended his campaign, compared to the Trump campaign and GOP allies who have spent $510.4 million, according to a recent AdImpact report.

Democrats are also leading Republicans in future ad reservations in two out of the three blue wall states.

Republicans have $58.1 million in future ads in Pennsylvania, compared to the $55.3 million Democrats have reserved, AdImpact reported. In Michigan, Democrats have the advantage with $41.4 million reserved compared to the GOP’s $34.1 million reserved, and in Wisconsin Democrats have $22.3 million reserved while Republicans have $15.4 million reserved.

Democratic strategists who spoke to the Washington Examiner claimed that in a polarized nation, the polls and the subsequent election were always going to be close, despite the massive amounts of money the candidates raised.

“Americans are basically split down the middle on the merits of (a) Harris and Trump presidency and all the subsequent policy implications,” said Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist. “And nothing either candidate does in the next month is going to change that. There is a limited utility to having a ton of money because there aren’t very many people out there who are open to persuasion from television or any other medium.”

Douglas Wilson, a Democratic strategist in Charlotte, North Carolina, pointed to Harris’s unconventional media blitz over the recent week and her vast ground game operation as an example of how the money she’s raised could boost her race against Trump.

“With that money, she has ability to expand her operation even more in these states,” Wilson said. “She can go up on TV, to go up on digital, to go up on XM Radio, to go up on Roku, YouTube. So she’s going to be able to hit every single platform that voters are using.”

Harris’s media tour on 60 Minutes, The View, Stephen Colbert’s show, an interview with Howard Stern, and the Call Me Daddy podcast was marred by several missteps. The vice president is also tapping Democratic former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton to hit the campaign stump.

The strategy to reach niche audiences through nontraditional news organizations likely aligns with Bannon’s view that television ads are not as effective as they once were.

“I would argue that all that money that’s being spent on TV is probably not having a major impact on the election,” said Bannon. “I mean, that’s heresy to some people, but I believe that the longer I’m in this business, the less I believe that television ads have much impact.”

Ultimately, Wilson argued, “this is going to come down to the ground game, and this is where money is really going to make a difference in politics.”

The Harris campaign has repeatedly bragged in campaign memos that it has more field offices, paid staff, and volunteers in the seven battleground states compared to the Trump campaign.

“We currently have more than 260 coordinated campaign offices and more than 1,400 coordinated staff across the battleground states that are making investments in training and reaching supporters across the country with new organizing tactics,” wrote Dan Kanninen, battleground states director for Harris’s campaign, in an early August memo.

In an early September memo, campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote Harris’s financial advantage would go “directly to a relentless battleground operation, with more than 312 coordinated offices and 2,000 coordinated staff in the states — a reflection of a campaign with presences in every corner of every battleground state and with the communities critical to victory.”

But some Democratic veterans are sounding the alarm.

David Axelrod told Axios that Harris “made steady, incremental progress in the 10 days after the [Sept. 10] debate, but now the race has plateaued.”

James Carville told MSNBC’s “The Beat” that the “only thing I feel is, the election’s coming Nov. 5. And I’m scared to death.”

“I’m very, very concerned and very scared,” he also said.

The Harris campaign declined to comment to the Washington Examiner.

Wilson, the North Carolina strategist, stressed that the unprecedented nature of the 2024 campaign has upended electoral norms with the first black female nominee and a sitting president to drop out this late in an election season.

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“Then you have a former president that’s running, that is an institution in himself, that has a following more loyal to him than the party that almost got killed twice,” Wilson said of the assassination attempts. “On top of that, two major hurricanes that devastated parts of the country that’s never been affected by a hurricane like that.

“You don’t know how this is going to end up. We have no idea. And so, when you see polls wobbling like that, you have to take into account the ethos that these voters are currently finding themselves in.”

Marisa Schultz contributed to this report.