The Global Fertility Crash

Edward Saunders

For decades now, we have been told that the earth’s population is rising at an unsustainable rate, and that the population of this planet could reach 10 billion by the end of the century. Of course, most of that growth is in Africa and Asia rather than the Western World. However, despite this being the main global narrative on demographics, it actually ignores a rather startling trend which is pushing in the other direction.

People on our side of the political aisle are well aware that birth rates in White countries are below replacement level, yet are probably not as aware of the fact that birth rates in East Asia are actually even worse. Indeed, the fertility rate in South Korea is now so catastrophic (at around 0.8), that universities are setting up dating courses in attempt to reverse the trend. If you consider that the TFR (total fertility rate) needed for replacement is 2.1, it just underlines the situation they currently find themselves in. Mathematically speaking, if current trends continue the nation is unlikely to exist in 250 years.

This may seem surprising, but what is more surprising is that Taiwan, Japan, and Communist China are all facing similar scenarios, with the latter’s population (TFR 1.3) allegedly already in decline. Modern lifestyles, the loss of cultural cohesion, liberal propaganda, communist mismanagement and degeneracy have all played their role in changing the once fertile East. In Japan, rural schools are being closed down, villages are gradually being abandoned and even some outer islands are no longer inhabited. Beijing’s recently abandoned One Child Policy was designed to stop the country becoming too populous, yet with every child for the past 2 generations having been an only child, it seems to have made a catastrophic mistake.

The diagram above is grim and shows how misguided people who advocate birth rate restrictions actually are. In just three generations, the genetic legacies of four different families can potentially be reduced to having just one remaining descendant, and if that individual has no children, its game over for all four families. This is the consequence of below replacement level birth rates coupled with Communist Party totalitarianism. China’s One Child Policy also meant gender selective abortions became common, as ambitious parents presumed that sons would have better job prospects. This now means that there is a massive gender imbalance in the country, and over 40 million men are unable to find wives and reproduce. Communists really do break humanity wherever they take over!

African population bomb

Now I know what your thinking – what about the sub-Saharan African population bomb? Well, it is true that Black Africa’s populations continue to rise exponentially, and that this is likely to cause famine, migration waves and warfare over resources. However, you may be surprised to learn that its fertility rate has actually been declining for 40 years, with its overall TFR likely to be hovering around replacement level towards the end of the century.

Okay, so 7 children-per-woman down to 4 children-per-woman in Africa over 40 years doesn’t sound like much of a change, as they are of course still well above replacement level. And this is true for now, with African populations set to continue rising for decades ahead. But by the end of the century they will be in the same position as us, just with a lower life expectancy and less technological and medical capabilities. As a result, if Europeans can weather the storm over the next 80 years, which can only happen with the implementation of both immigration restrictions and remigration initiatives, our future can be secured.

The meaning of this post is really to spread awareness of several key points. Firstly, that the world over the next century will continue to undergo a severe fertility crash, though the current rise of population numbers mask this reality. Secondly, as a result of the first point, it is absolutely essential that governments in the West, like Hungary has recently done, implement family friendly policies that make child rearing affordable. Thirdly, the population bomb that we fear overwhelming the West from the global south is likely to be temporary (although still incredibly dangerous if open borders continue).

For Europeans a choice must be made – have babies or fade away. The will power to both reproduce and bring about political change are the two key ingredients necessary for survival. Currently the European TFR is hovering around 1.5, which is of course below replacement level, yet is higher than many East Asian countries and on par with North and South America. For Europeans as a global group, pushing that level up to 2.1 would have a massive impact, as other areas of the world have seen their pro-natal policies fail. The ball is in our court.

Originally published at Patriotic Alternative.

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