If You Are Looking For A Belly Laugh, Read Fred Kagan’s Latest

Saddam had Baghdad Bob. He was damn entertaining as he spilled his nightly delusions trying to convince the West that the Iraqi Army was keeping American troops at bay back in March 2003. Well, as the saying goes in Poker, I’ll see your Baghdad Bob and raise you a Fred Kagan.

Fred Kagan, spouse of the corpulent Victoria Nuland, is a “scholar” at the American Enterprise Institute and part of the Institute for the Study of War is out with an article that is worthy of a free ticket on the crazy train — How the Ukraine Counteroffensive Can Still Succeed. Here are some of the low points:

But the Ukrainian counteroffensive can succeed in any of several ways. First, the current Ukrainian mechanized breakthrough could succeed, and the Ukrainians could exploit it deeply enough to unhinge part or all of the Russian lines. Second, Russian forces, already suffering serious morale and other systemic problems, could break under the pressure and begin to withdraw in a controlled or uncontrolled fashion. Third, a steady pressure and interdiction campaign supported by major efforts such as the one now underway can generate gaps in the Russian lines that Ukrainian forces can exploit at first locally, but then for deeper penetrations. The first and second possibilities are relatively unlikely but possible.

The third is the most probable path to Ukrainian success. It will be slower and more gradual than the other two—and slower than Ukraine’s Western backers desire and expect. It depends on the West providing Ukraine with a constant flow of equipment likely over many months so that Ukraine can maintain its pressure until the Russian forces offer the kinds of frontline cracks the Ukrainians can exploit. It is not primarily a matter of attrition. The slow pace of the pressure campaign Ukraine had been using before July 26 is designed to minimize Ukrainian losses. It is not primarily oriented towards attriting Russians either, but rather towards steadily forcing the Russians out of their prepared defensive positions in ways that the Ukrainians can take advantage of to make operationally significant advances. It is still maneuver warfare rather than attritional warfare, just at a slower pace. It therefore requires patience, but it can succeed.. . .

Hey Fred, no it cannot.

Source: The Gateway Pundit